Gas eða gasleysi?

Allt logar þessa stundina á kommentakerfi Financial Times. Í tengslum við frétt um risasamning Rússlands og Kína um gaskaup. 

Ástæðan er sú að í morgun birti FT (og fjölmargir aðrir þekktustu fjölmiðlar heimsins) frétt þess efnis að viðræður Pútíns við ráðamenn í Kína um sölu á gasi til Kína hefðu farið út um þúfur. Því ekki hefði náðst saman um skilmálana. Myndin hér til hliðar birtist með fréttinni og átti vafalítið að vera táknræn.

Fyrirsögn fréttarinnar var China to delay Russia gas deal in blow to Vladimir Putin. Fyrir heimsókn sína hafði Pútin gert ráð fyrir að undirrita risasamning um gassöluna, en viðræður milli ríkjanna þar um höfðu staðið yfir í fjöldamörg ár. Nú átti allt að vera til reiðu, en samkvæmt fréttinni höfðu Kínverjar á síðustu stundu hafnað samningnum.

En þegar leið á daginn fóru að berast fréttir á mörgum vefmiðlum veraldarinnar af því að búið væri að undirrita samningana! Svo virðist sem sú frétt hafi byggst á fréttatilkynningu frá kínverska ríkisolíufélaginu CNPC. Og Financial Times uppfærði sína frétt, eða öllu heldur gjörbreytti frétt sinni. Og nú er fyrirsögnin China and Russia sign gas deal.

Þetta er allt hið furðulegasta mál. Svona getur orkuveröldin verið undarleg - og laufléttur samningur upp á hundruð milljarða USD ýmist verið inni eða úti! En lesendur Orkubloggsins geta skemmt sér við að lesa hér báðar umræddar fréttir FT (eldri fréttin er horfin af vef FT og hlekkur á hana opnar nýju fréttina, en Orkubloggarinn var svo forsjáll að vista textann í morgun).

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Financial Times - May 21, 2014 5:56 am
China to delay Russia gas deal in blow to Vladimir Putin
By Lucy Hornby and Jamil Anderlini in Beijing

China will not reach an agreement to import natural gas from Russia’s Gazprom during a state visit by President Vladimir Putin this week despite strenuous Russian efforts to secure what has been portrayed as a key test of closer Sino-Russian ties.

As Moscow’s relations with the West have deteriorated over the crisis in Ukraine, Mr Putin has sought to show the world and the Russian people that he has alternative friends to the east.

Russian media, officials and Mr Putin himself have repeatedly said the 30-year, $456bn deal would be signed during the president’s visit to Shanghai, which ends on Wednesday evening.

But PetroChina, the listed subsidiary of state-owned China National Petroleum Corp, China’s largest oil company, told the Financial Times on Wednesday that the deal would not be signed on this visit.

“We won’t be signing [on this visit],” said Mao Zefeng, spokesman for PetroChina. “At the moment the import price and the domestic price are inverted. We are already losing money on imported gas, and we can’t lose more.”

Earlier this week, Anatoly Yanovsky, Russia’s deputy energy minister, was quoted by Russian state-controlled media as saying the deal was “98 per cent ready”.

In the wake of Russia’s aggressive actions in Ukraine, European countries have been rethinking their dependence on Russian gas.

If the deal had gone ahead, it would have been a powerful sign of Russia’s ability to reduce its reliance on Europe, the largest importer of Russian energy.

Even without the deal, Mr Putin’s visit has been filled with symbolic appearances intended to show the growing strength of the relationship, which both sides have described as the best in their history.

Discussions over the gas deal have gone on for more than 10 years, with negotiations snagging over price, the pipeline route and Chinese stakes in Russian projects.

The Chinese side would have driven a harder bargain in light of Gazprom’s weaker position, industry sources in Beijing said.

China formally signed previously agreed LNG supply deals as well as a massive coal co-operation project, so the Russian leader will not leave empty-handed.

Since negotiations began with Gazprom a decade ago, China has diversified its sources for imported natural gas. It buys piped gas from Central Asia and is constructing a number of LNG terminals to import from projects around the world.

Mr Putin’s decision in 2013 to end Gazprom’s monopoly on gas exports has also benefited Chinese oil companies, which have signed deals to invest in and import gas from Novatek’s Yamal LNG project. That means Russia can still profit from gas sales to China, while removing some of the political drivers for Gazprom’s long-delayed deal with CNPC. 

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Financial Times - Last updated: May 21, 2014 11:37 am
China and Russia sign gas deal
By Lucy Hornby and Jamil Anderlini in Beijing

China and Russia signed an eleventh hour agreement to import natural gas from Russia's Gazprom during a state visit by President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday following strenuous Russian efforts to secure what has been portrayed as a key test of closer Sino-Russian ties.

As Moscow's relations with the west have deteriorated over the crisis in Ukraine, Mr Putin has sought to show the world and the Russian people that he has alternative friends to the east.

State-owned China National Petroleum Corp, China's largest oil company, said on Wednesday it had signed a 30-year deal to buy up to 38bn cubic metres of gas per year, beginning in 2018.

The company did not give details on the pricing of the gas, the sticking point in negotiations that have stretched over a decade. Russian media and officials had said the deal would be a highlight of Mr Putin's visit.

The breakthrough came just hours after PetroChina, the listed subsidiary of CNPC, told the Financial Times that the deal would not be completed during Mr Putin's visit because of the pricing dispute.

"At the moment the import price and the domestic price are inverted. We are already losing money on imported gas, and we can't lose more," said PetroChina spokesman Mao Zefeng earlier on Wednesday.

In the wake of Russia's aggressive actions in Ukraine, European countries have been rethinking their dependence on Russian gas.

The deal is a powerful sign of Russia's ability to reduce its reliance on Europe, the largest importer of Russian energy.

Mr Putin's visit has been filled with symbolic appearances intended to show the growing strength of the relationship, which both sides have described as the best in their history.

The long-running discussions over the gas deal have involved the price, pipeline route and Chinese stakes in Russian projects.

The Chinese side would have driven a harder bargain in light of Gazprom's weaker position, industry sources in Beijing said.

On Tuesday, China formally signed previously agreed LNG supply deals as well as a massive coal co-operation project.

For China, with a growing diversity of natural gas sources including from newly licensed Russian exporters, securing supply of piped gas from Gazprom no longer holds the importance it did when the two companies began negotiating a decade ago. 

Athugasemdir

[Anna Sigríður Guðmundsdóttir, 21.5.2014 kl. 21:39]

Hvað er að því að Rússland geri gasviðskiptasamning við kína?

Hefur Rússland ekki sjálfstætt samningsfrelsi, til að selja gas?

M.b.kv.

[Jónatan Karlsson, 22.5.2014 kl. 01:38]

Ég tek undir með Önnu Sigríði.

Samskipti þessara tveggja stórvelda hafa verið til fyrirmyndar en nú neyðir óvinveitt umhverfið þessa risa til að snúa bökum saman og efla varnir, vígbúast og hefja sameiginlegar heræfingar - og þó fyrr hefði verið